Phases of an OR Study

PHASES OF AN OR STUDY

An OR study is rooted in teamwork, where the OR analysts and the client work side by side. The OR analysts' expertise in modeling must be complemented by the experience and cooperation of the client for whom the study is being carried out.

As a decision-making tool, OR is both a science and an art. It is a science by virtue of the mathematical techniques it embodies, and it is an art because the success of the phases leading to the solution of the mathematical model depends largely on the creativity and experience of the operations research team. Willemain (1994) advises that "effective [OR] practice requires more than analytical competence: It also re-quires, among other attributes, technical judgement (e.g., when and how to use a given technique) and skills in communication and organizational survival."

It is difficult to prescribe specific courses of action (similar to those dictated by the precise theory of mathematical models) for these intangible factors. We can, how-ever, offer general guidelines for the implementation of OR in practice.

The principal phases for implementing OR in practice include

1. Definition of the problem.

2. Construction of the model.

3. Solution of the model.

4. Validation of the model.

5. Implementation of the solution.

Phase 3, dealing with model solution, is the best defined and generally the easiest to implement in an OR study, because it deals mostly with precise mathematical models. Implementation of the remaining phases is more an art than a theory.

Problem definition involves defining the scope of the problem under investigation. This function should be carried out by the entire OR team. The aim is to identify three principal elements of the decision problem: (1) description of the decision alter-natives, (2) determination of the objective of the study, and (3) specification of the limitations under which the modeled system operates.

Model construction entails an attempt to translate the problem definition into mathematical relationships. If the resulting model fits one of the standard mathematical models, such as linear programming, we can usually reach a solution by using available algorithms. Alternatively, if the mathematical relationships are too complex to allow the determination of an analytic solution, the OR team may opt to simplify the model and use a heuristic approach, or they may consider the use of simulation, if appropriate. In some cases, mathematical, simulation, and heuristic models may be combined to solve the decision problem, as the case analyses in Chapter 24 demonstrate.

Model solution is by far the simplest of all OR phases because it entails the use of well-defined optimization algorithms. An important aspect of the model solution phase is sensitivity analysis. It deals with obtaining additional information about the behavior of the optimum solution when the model undergoes some parameter changes. Sensitivity analysis is particularly needed when the parameters of the model cannot be estimated accurately. In these cases, it is important to study the behavior of the optimum solution in the neighborhood of the estimated parameters.

Model  validity checks whether or not the proposed model does what it purports to do-that is, does it predict adequately the behavior of the system under study? Initially, the OR team should be convinced that the model's output does not include "surprises." In other words, does the solution make sense? Are the results intuitively acceptable? On the formal side, a common method for checking the validity of a model is to compare its output with historical output data. The model is valid if, under similar input conditions, it reasonably duplicates past performance. Generally, however, there is no assurance that future performance will continue to duplicate past behavior. Also, because the model is usually based on careful examination of past data, the proposed comparison is usually favorable. If the proposed model rep-resents a new (nonexisting) system, no historical data would be available. In such cases, we may use simulation as an independent tool for verifying the output of the mathematical model.

Implementation of the solution of a validated model involves the translation of the results into understandable operating instructions to be issued to the people who will administer the recommended system. The burden of this task lies primarily with the OR team.