Population Forecasting Methods

POPULATION FORECASTING METHODS

Population is one of the most important factors for design of the water systems, so it should be estimated, so as to know the increasing demand and ensure continuous supply to them.

Population data is obtained by previous records and the rate of increase is found out and this used for further analysis, which may be by using the methods described below

1.     Arithmetic growth method

2.     Geometric growth method

3.     Curvilinear method

4.     Logistic method

5.     Decline growth method

6.     Ratio growth

Arithmetic growth method:

It is based on the assumption that the rate of growth of population is constant. It means that the each year population increase by the same increment.

Mathematically;

dp / dt = Ka

Where,

dp / dt is the rate of change of population

Ka = the constant arithmetic increment

Ka can be determined by finding the slop of the graph of population against time. The population in the future is thus estimated.

Geometric method:

It is based on the hypothesis that rate of change of population is proportional to the population. According to this, method it is assumed that the rate of increase of population growth in a community is proportional to the present population.

Mathematically:_?

dP /dt P => dp / dt = K_g where K_g = Geometric Growth constant.

If P₀  is the population at any time t₀  and P_f  is

the population at time t_f then

?P_f P₀ dp/p = K_g ? t_f t₀ dt = Ln (P_f/P₀ = K_g (t_f/t₀)

=> Ln (P_f/P₀ = K_g ?t

=> (P_f/P₀ = (e) K_g ?t and P_f = P₀ (e) K_g ?t

This method gives somewhat larger value as compared to arithmetic method and can be used for new cities with rapid growth. In normal practice, arithmetic and geometric growth average is taken.

Curvilinear method:

In this it is assumed that the population of a city will grow, in the same manner as in other cities in the past. This similarity between the cities includes geographical proximity, similarity of economic base, access to similar transportation system etc. In practice it is difficult to find similar cities.

Logistic method:

When the growth rate of population due to birth, death and migration are under normal situation and not subjected to extraordinary changes due to unusual situation like war, epidemics earth quakes and refugees etc. Then this method is used:

According to this method

P = P _sat / (1+ e^a+ b?t), where P _sat is the saturation population, of the community and a, b are constants. P _sat, a and b can be determined from three successive census populations and the equations are

P_sat = 2 P₀ P₁P₂ - P₁² (P₀ + P₂) / (P₀ P₂ - P₁²)

Decline growth method:

This method like, logistic, assumes that the city has some limiting saturation population and that its rate of growth is a function of population deficit;

Ratio method:

Ratio method of fore casting is based on the assumption that the population of a certain area or a city will increase in the same manner to a larger entity like a province, or a country. It requires calculation of ratio of locals to required population in a series of census years.

Projection of the trend line using any of the technique and application of projected ratio to the estimated required population of projected ratio to the estimated required population in the year of interest. This method of forecasting does not take into account some special calculations in certain area but have the following advantages.