Course and Natural History
The natural history of substance dependence
characteristically follows the course of a chronic relapsing disorder, although
a large number of individuals who experiment with potentially abusable drugs in
adolescence do not go on to acquire dependence. The initial phase of the
natural history of experimenting with drugs has been well described in studies
by Kandel (1975), who has used the concept of gateway drug use and its
evolution into more serious drug dependence during adolescence and the early
twen-ties. The later phases of dependence are characterized in the 20-to
30-year follow-up studies of individuals with alcoholism and those with opioid
addiction by Vaillant (1988, 1983) and Laub and Vaillant (2000). He has
documented the natural history after age 20 years in delinquent boys, which is
most closely synonymous with having lifetime conduct disorder using DSM-IV-TR
criteria, and found high mortality rates by age 40 years in those delin-quent
boys who later become substance users. In his most recent studies following 475
delinquent boys and 456 matched nonde-linquent comparison boys from age 14
years until age 65 years he found that 13% of the delinquent and only 6% (N 5 28) of the nondelinquent
subjects died unnatural deaths. These deaths were significantly associated with
abuse of alcohol during adulthood and childhood delinquency, and these two
factors completely ac-counted for the other associations of adult crime,
dysfunctional home environment and poor education with the increased
mortal-ity. Thus, abusing substances may have a critical impact on later
health, but having a conduct disorder as a child increases this risk, perhaps
due to related behaviors such as unwillingness to seek out appropriate health
care. Clearly, these studies open more questions about the interaction of
substance abuse and childhood behaviors that may not include substance abuse.
Population surveys, such as the high school senior
surveys and National Institute on Drug Abuse household survey (Wallace et al., 1999), have provided repeated
cross-sectional data on changing
trends in substance use and its associated problems. These surveys have
increasingly recognized cultural differences in the course of drug use.
Individuals with substance dependence also have been followed up in a variety
of longitudinal treatment studies such as the Drug Abuse Treatment Outcome
Studies (DATOS) (Flynn et al., 1999;
Simpson et al., 1999). These sur-veys
and treatment follow-up studies provide indications of how the natural history
of substance abuse changes over the course of several decades. In contrast to
most medical disorders, sub-stance abuse and dependence differs because the
substances of abuse change over time as epidemics come and go and as new drugs,
such as the “designer drugs”, are developed. The natural history of abuse and
dependence on these new substances can be unique, with patterns of sustained
low-level use, such as with methylenedioxymethamphetamine (Ectasy), or
associated social phenomena, such as parkinsonism in abusers of
fentanyl-related designer drugs. Thus, the natural history of substance abuse
and dependence is determined by the type of substance used and, for
polysubstance dependence, can be complicated by changing sec-ular trends and
epidemics lasting from months to decades.
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